paul mccord writes here
2004.11.03 @ 1:40pm

Election 2004: Bush, Republicans Win Big


Full Presidential Results
Full Congressional Results, or click states on map above for individual state results


BUSH 50.9%60,934,251    286
KERRY48.2%57,765,291    252
other 0.9% 1,105,242 0
TOTAL    100.0%    119,804,784    538

With three House seats too close to call (and two in Louisiana being forced to a runoff), Republicans will lead the 109th Congress with a 232-199-1 split in the House and a 55-44-1 in the Senate. Bush won the popular vote with a slim but clear majority (51%-48%), and the electoral vote by a more decisive margin (286-252). (I had predicted a 296-242 result with a similar popular vote; I predicted Bush would barely win Wisconsin's 10 electoral votes, but Kerry took them.)

Voter turnout set a few records. About 120 million, or 60% of eligible voters, voted in this year's election, meaning about 60 million people voted for Bush -- the most votes any candidate has ever received. That percentage turnout is the highest since 1968. At least six southern states -- AL, FL, GA, SC, TN, VA -- and DC set turnout records. Compare to 2000 (105.4 million voters, 54% turnout), 1996 (96.3 million, 49%), and 1992 (104.4 million, 55%).


Presidential Tossups

Florida (27)
  52%-47% Bush

Pennsylvania (21)
  51%-49% Kerry

Ohio (20)
  51%-49% Bush

Michigan (17)
  51%-48% Kerry

Minnesota (10)
  51%-48% Kerry

Wisconsin (10)
  50%-49% Kerry

Iowa (7)
  50%-49% Bush

West Virginia (5)
  56%-43% Bush

Nevada (5)
  51%-48% Bush

New Mexico (5)
  50%-49% Bush

Hawaii (4)
  54%-45% Kerry

New Hampshire (4)
  50%-49% Kerry
 

Senate Dems (45)

Arkansas
  Blanche Lincoln
California
  Barbara Boxer
Colorado
  Ken Salazar
Connecticut
  Christopher Dodd
Hawaii
  Daniel Inouye
Illinois
  Barack Obama
Indiana
  Evan Bayh
Maryland
  Barbara Mikulski
Nevada
  Harry Reid
New York
  Charles Schumer
North Dakota
  Byron Dorgan
Oregon
  Ron Wyden
Vermont
  Pat Leahy
Washington
  Patty Murray
Wisconsin
  Russ Feingold
 

Senate Reps (55)

Alabama
  Richard Shelby
Alaska
  Lisa Murkowski
Arizona
  John McCain
Florida
  Mel Martinez
Georgia
  Johnny Isakson
Iowa
  Charles Grassley
Idaho
  Mike Crapo
Kansas
  Sam Brownback
Kentucky
  Jim Bunning
Louisiana
  David Vitter
Missouri
  Christopher Bond
New Hampshire
  Judd Gregg
North Carolina
  Richard Burr
Ohio
  George Voinovich
Oklahoma
  Tom Coburn
Pennsylvania
  Arlen Specter
South Carolina
  Jim DeMint
South Dakota
  John Thune
Utah
  Robert Bennett
updated 2004.10.20

Georgia Election Results

Money raised and spent by candidates
from 1/1/2003 to 9/30/2004
 
SENATERaisedSpent
Johnny Isakson (R)  $7,217,812  $5,781,674
Denise Majette (D)  $1,681,629  $1,309,307
 
CONGRESS 01RaisedSpent
Jack Kingston (R)  $774,041  $526,884
 
CONGRESS 02RaisedSpent
Sanford Bishop (D)  $625,039  $487,051
Dave Eversman (R)  $29,105  $13,507
 
CONGRESS 03RaisedSpent
Jim Marshall (D)  $951,024  $514,008
Calder Clay (R)  $923,765  $567,236
 
CONGRESS 04RaisedSpent
Cynthia McKinney (D)  $426,784  $456,684
Catherine Davis (R)  $27,256  $21,182
 
CONGRESS 05RaisedSpent
John Lewis (D)  $371,105  $459,500
 
CONGRESS 06RaisedSpent
Tom Price (R)  $2,269,913  $2,081,021
 
CONGRESS 07RaisedSpent
John Linder (R)  $695,410  $709,274
 
CONGRESS 08RaisedSpent
Lynn Westmoreland (R)  $1,915,708  $1,626,326
Silvia Knox-Delamar (D)  $11,840  $8,872
 
CONGRESS 09RaisedSpent
Charles Norwood (R)  $1,104,336  $787,910
Bob Ellis (D)  $98,589  $91,228
 
CONGRESS 10RaisedSpent
Nathan Deal (R)  $293,577  $284,588
 
CONGRESS 11RaisedSpent
Phil Gingrey (R)  $2,146,681  $1,142,954
Rick Crawford (D)  $262,615  $200,115
 
CONGRESS 12RaisedSpent
Max Burns (R)  $2,330,551  $1,649,999
John Barrow (D)  $1,531,526  $1,365,210
 
CONGRESS 13RaisedSpent
David Scott (D)  $899,154  $889,463

Three of Georgia's Representatives in the 108th Congress left open seats for the 2004 election in favor of running for Zell Miller's open Senate seat. A fourth was ousted by a successful challenge, leaving nine incumbents to be re-elected. The party balance among Georgia's representatives in the House drops from an 8-5 to a 7-6 Republican majority, but Republican Johnny Isakson took over Democrat Zell Miller's Senate seat to offset the Republican loss in the House.

Meanwhile, the party balance in the General Assembly improved considerably for Republicans, who boosted their majorities in both the state Senate and House, to 34-22 and 96-84 respectively. Now the campaigns begin to determine whether current party leadership in each house needs to be reconsidered.

For full complete, statewide results, click the links below:

General: Nov. 4 and Nov. 23 runoff
Primary: July 20 and Aug. 10 runoff


Constitutional Amendment: Marriage

(a) This state shall recognize as marriage only the union of man and woman. Marriages between persons of the same sex are prohibited in this state.

(b) No union between persons of the same sex shall be recognized by this state as entitled to the benefits of marriage. This state shall not give effect to any public act, record, or judicial proceeding of any other state or jurisdiction respecting a relationship between persons of the same sex that is treated as a marriage under the laws of such other state or jurisdiction. The courts of this state shall have no jurisdiction to grant a divorce or separate maintenance with respect to any such relationship or otherwise to consider or rule on any of the parties' respective rights arising as a result of or in connection with such relationship.


Constitutional Amendment: Courts

The Georgia Constitution already allowed the 11th US Circuit Court of Appeals in Atlanta to ask the Georgia Supreme Court to answer an unsettled question about state law that could have an important bearing on the outcome of a federal lawsuit. The proposed amendment expands that authority to the federal court judges in Georgia who sit one level below the federal appeals court. (The proposed amendment would allow litigants in US District Courts the opportunity to find the answer to an important state-law question long before their case is appealed to the 11th Circuit.)


I strongly disagree with the marriage amendment. The sole purpose of it is to restrict the rights of others without any moral obligation or justification. It is a tyrannical suggestion aimed simply at forbidding actions that harm no outside parties. I don't see any problem with the second amendment, though I voted against it. Both amendments passed.

Bush or Kerry?

This image belongs to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution!

This is a close race. Anyone who disbelieves that is either too partisan or delusional to be helped. About 90 electoral votes (Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico) could swing either way, with Bush needing only about 35 of them.


My Prediction:

George W. Bush had a clear advantage as early as late August, when attention on John Kerry's service in Vietnam erased Kerry's lead in the polls even before the RNC began. The first debate seemed to even things up a bit and perhaps give Kerry a slight advantage, but Bush's performance in the latter two debates even things up and perhaps have given Bush a solid advantage. The current national polls favor Bush, but as we learned in 2000, the popular winner won't necessarily be the electoral winner if the race is too close! The state polls are all that matter for electoral purposes.

Popular Vote: Bush 49.5% - Kerry 47.5%
Electoral College: Bush 296 - Kerry 242


How I Will Vote, and Why:

My brother is a Marine, therefore I support every spending measure that will afford our troops the best equipment and tools to do their job safely and efficiently (advantage: Bush).

My father is a civilian employee at Robins Air Force Base, therefore I support any measure that will ensure his job security (advantage: Bush).

I strongly believe in the idea that individuals should take responsiblity of their own lives rather than allowing the government to redistribute accountability (financial or otherwise) to those with larger incomes (advantage: Bush).

I strongly believe that religion, sexuality, relationships, and abortion are personal issues and should not be regulated or granted any special status, official or not, in government (advantage: Kerry).

I believe political speech should be distinguished from personal speech (similarly to commercial speech) in order to constitutionally justify campaign finance reform that reduces the influence of money on elections (advantage: neither).

I am politically independent with mostly libertarian values, but I do not support the Libertarian party, nor do I support any other political party. I dislike political parties because they oppose my individualist ideals, and I especially dislike the Democrat/Republican duopoly over American politics.

 

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